The World Bank has made a terrible prediction of increasing poverty in Pakistan for the next two years
"Pakistan News"
The World Bank predicts the worst recession in South Asia, with the slow and uncertain economic recovery due to the negative effects of Code 19, as well as the possibility of increasing poverty in Pakistan in the next two years. According to media reports, the latest issue of the Bank's South Asia Economic Focus report, which is published twice a year, said that Pakistan's economic growth rate is expected to slow down in fiscal year 2021 and is expected to remain at 0.5%. Three years until 2019
According to the report, economic growth is expected to be lower than expected, averaging 1.3 percent in fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The report said that this estimate is highly uncertain and does not predict an increase in infection. Or the lack of further outbreaks of the virus because otherwise more widespread lockdowns may be needed. Prior to the release of this report, Hartwig Schaefer, the World Bank's Vice President for the Asia Region, He said that South Asian economies were hit harder than expected during the Code 19, especially for small businesses and informal workers who suddenly lost their jobs and wages. He said that the bank did not publish Pakistan's poverty figures due to technical reasons but the rate of increase in rabat is high like other countries in the region. The report said that steps have been taken to control the epidemic. Pakistan's economy has been hit hard, economic activity has shrunk and poverty has plummeted in FY20 The surge is feared as fiscal and fiscal policies were tightened earlier this year and a lockdown was imposed. Growth is expected to be gradual, but uncertain and demand-driven. It is likely to remain low due to the restoration of the measures taken, the possible re-emergence of the infection in this scenario, the extensive damage to crops caused by locusts and the increased risk of monsoon rains. Overall, the report says South Asia is suffering from its worst recession because of the devastating effects of Code 19 on the region's economies.
The report predicts a faster-than-expected economic decline in the region as the region has grown over the past five years, with disproportionate increases in informal workers and millions of South Asians living in extreme poverty. After an annual growth rate of 6%, it is expected to shrink to 7.7% in 2020. Schaefer said that the provision of emergency aid has reduced the impact of epidemics, but that governments need to use smart policies in their informal sectors. There is a need to address the deeper risks and wisely allocate resources. Talking about Pakistan, the report said that the real GDP growth will be reduced from 1.9% in FY19 to 1.5% in 2020. It is likely to be the worst decline in decades, reflecting measures taken to stem the spread of the corona and tighter monetary and fiscal policy before the virus. It said local economic activity is expected to resume. Lockdown has eased after a decline in active cases of Corona, but Pakistan's early economic recovery Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated during this time, with epidemics spreading and uncertainties over vaccine availability, as well as declining demand to prevent imbalances, as well as unfavorable external conditions. According to the report, the current account deficit is expected to average 1.5% of GDP in FY21 and FY22, with imports and exports gradually improving as domestic demand and global conditions improve. In addition, the country's fiscal deficit is likely to be limited to 7.4 percent in FY22, with the restoration of strong earnings with the help of restoration of financial stability and restoration of economic activities and serious structural reforms. Expenditure will remain substantial due to payments, rising wages and pension bills and guaranteed loans from state-owned enterprises by the government in the energy sector. The report said that in view of the slowdown in growth in the near future. Poverty is expected to worsen, the report said, adding that the weaker sections rely heavily on jobs in the services sector and the weak growth rate of services is likely to reduce extreme poverty due to the epidemic. It will be ineffective. It says the biggest threat to the economic scenario is possible. A second wave of the virus has spread the infection, which could lead to a new lockdown at the local level and delay structural reforms. Locust attacks, heart attacks and the absence of a monsoon. Extreme rainfall can cause massive crop damage, food insecurity and inflationary pressures, as well as the livelihoods of households that depend primarily on agriculture. Ultimately, unconventional donors And the difficulty of increasing bilateral loans more than the tightening conditions of international financing could increase the risks of external financing. The bank noted that despite weak activity, rising food prices in Pakistan, energy Inflation for consumers has risen from an average of 6.8 per cent in FY19 to an average of 10.7 per cent in FY209 due to the rise in prices and a weaker rupee. Policy rates from July 2019 to February 2020 with inflationary pressures Was set at 13.25fiSd but for the remainder of FY20 to support declining activity thereafter. It was reduced to 7%.
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